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South African households are beating Eskom at its own game with rooftop solar

7/28/2023

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Data from Eskom and Professor Anton Eberhard shows that South African households and businesses have installed and estimated 4,400MW of rooftop solar PV – double the solar capacity procured under Eskom’s four bid windows.

According to Eberhard’s data from Eskom, the country’s installed solar rooftop PV increased from 983 MW in March 2022 to 4,412 MW in June 2023 – marking a 349% increase in just over a year.
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Eskom’s transmission division is believed to be responsible for this data on private solar installations, as it is determined by analysing the variance between predicted and actual energy demand in the country.

This means the shortfall in actual demand relative the what is predicated by Eskom is assumed to be a result of alternative energy sources (solar rooftop PV).

This 349% increase in solar rooftop PV to 4,400MW is double the estimated 2,200MW installed under the government’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (Reipppp) – meaning South Africans are beating the government at its own game.

However, there are reasons why this is the case, and the main one is that Eskom has very limited grid capacity, which has hamstrung the power utility’s efforts to add new generation capacity.

To alleviate that pressure, Eskom introduced its so-called Interim Grid Capacity Allocation Rules. Still, many private power developers have criticised this move, arguing that it would increase the money developers must spend before they know whether they have access to the grid – which could scare off future investments.

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